ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga sees progress in the inflation war, but climate challenges ahead
Central banks' use of monetary policy to fight inflation is working, but in New Zealand we need to look at evidence demand and prices are being impacted rather than current inflation data, says ANZ Banking Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga.
Speaking in the Of Interest podcast, Yetsenga says news of an inflation fall in the United States suggests the Federal Reserve is close to an extended pause having increased its Federal Funds Rate to between 5% and 5.25% from 0% to 0.25% since March 2022.
US consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose 3% in the June year, down from 9.1% a year earlier. Yetsenga expects another 25 basis points increase from the Fed, after which he expects a period of pause.
"It's not obvious that pause will be followed by further hikes, but neither is it obvious that that pause will be followed by cuts. And I think that's a good signal," says Yetsenga.
In New Zealand, where March quarter CPI was 6.7% and June quarter CPI, due out July 19, is expected to be about 6%, Yetsenga says the current inflation rate isn't necessarily the key thing to look at in the inflation fight. On Thursday Statistics NZ said food prices rose 12.5% in the June year, a 35 year high.
"When you've hiked [interest rates] by 400 or 450 basis points, the current inflation rate, yes it's still important, but it's less additive to your information set. What is more additive is can we see the signs that demand and price pass through is being crimped by the policy moves that we have done? And the answer is unambiguously yes," Yetsenga says.
He acknowledges higher interest rates are a blunt tool and may not impact the economy the way we'd ideally like.
"Certainly there are other policy tools available. But in the absence of somebody else stepping up and delivering those other policy tools, it's up to our central banks that have their inflation mandates. And so far I think they're doing a good job at trying to balance getting inflation back to target without crimping the economy too much."
In the podcast Yetsenga also talks about the Reserve Bank of Australia's approach to the inflation fight in comparison to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, evidence central bank monetary policy is working, whether central banks need more inflation fighting tools, China's "remarkable" 0.0% CPI, and the impact of a higher frequency of extreme weather events on inflation.
"We are talking about deflation there [China]. We need to separate our expectations for China, I think, in the next 20 years [from] what China has looked like in the last 20 years. I don't think those two things will be in any way comparable," says Yetsenga.
Climate challenges, meanwhile, are "a supply side shock which will tend to boost inflation and will tend to worsen incomes. And so it hits productivity as well, and it reduces standards of living."
*You can find all episodes of the Of Interest podcast here.